## Fly Air Gini

The other day at OrgTheory, Beth Berman had a very nice discussion about “inequality in the skies”, and how much of space on planes is given over to different classes of passenger. Using some seating charts, she calculated some rough Gini coefficients of inequality on board. For example, for a transatlantic flight in a three-class configuration with fancy lie-flat beds up front, if we look again at how the space is distributed, we now have 21% of the people using about 40% of the plane, 27% using another 20%, and the final 52% using the last 40%.

## Scottish Independence

So, Scotland remains part of the United Kingdom. This morning on the bus (I should run a series called “Idle Data Analysis on the Bus”) I looked at how the high turnout compared to other Scottish elections. Data on turnout is easily available back to 1970. Here are two views of it. You can get a larger image or a PDF version of the figure if you want a closer look at it.

## Silver vs Krugman

Nate Silver’s relaunched FiveThirtyEight has been getting some flak from critics—including many former fans—for failing to live up to expectations. Specifically, critics have argued that instead of foxily modeling data and working the numbers, Silver and his co-contributors are looking more like regular old opinion columnists with rather better chart software. Paul Krugman has been a prominent critic, arguing that “For all the big talk about data-driven analysis, what [the site] actually delivers is sloppy and casual opining with a bit of data used, as the old saying goes, the way a drunkard uses a lamppost — for support, not illumination.” Silver has put his tongue at least part way into his cheek and pushed back a little with an article titled, in true Times fashion, “For Columnist, a Change of Tone”.

## Karl Marx or Pope Francis?

Pope Francis’s new Apostolic Exhortation, Evangelii Gaudium, has been getting some attention today, mostly thanks to its reiteration of some long-standing Catholic doctrine on social justice and the market. So, here is a quiz to see whether you can distinguish statements by Pope Francis from statements by Karl Marx. I figured someone was likely to do this anyway, so why not be first to the market? It’s fair to say that the Pope and Karl Marx differ significantly on numerous points of theory as well as on what people asking questions at job talks refer to as the policy implications of their views.

## Following up on Paul Revere

Yesterday’s post on Using Metadata to Find Paul Revere really caught fire. It’s still going, in fact, and it will probably break a hundred thousand unique pageviews some time this afternoon. It’s always exciting and a little anxiety-making when something like that happens. Overall, I’m delighted that the response has been so positive. By way of follow-up, I’d just say that it’s a single post that was meant to make a point in an accessible and hopefully entertaining way.

## Using Metadata to find Paul Revere

London, 1772. I have been asked by my superiors to give a brief demonstration of the surprising effectiveness of even the simplest techniques of the new-fangled Social Networke Analysis in the pursuit of those who would seek to undermine the liberty enjoyed by His Majesty’s subjects. This is in connection with the discussion of the role of “metadata” in certain recent events and the assurances of various respectable parties that the government was merely “sifting through this so-called metadata” and that the “information acquired does not include the content of any communications”.

## New Tools for Reproducible Research

You can see this point made in somewhat more detail here.

## Invisible Men

Over the years I’ve written about the work of Bruce Western, Becky Pettit, Chris Uggen, and other scholars who study mass incarceration in the United States. By now, the basic outlines of the phenomenon are pretty well established and, I hope, widely known. Two features stand out: its sheer scale, and its disproportionate concentration amongst young, unskilled black men. It should be astonishing to say that more than one percent of all American adults are incarcerated, and that this rate is without equal in the country’s history and without peer internationally.

## The Long Shadow of the X-Case

The Irish Times reports the death of a 31 year-old woman last month in Galway, as a result of being denied an abortion: Savita Halappanavar (31), a dentist, presented with back pain at the hospital on October 21st, was found to be miscarrying, and died of septicaemia a week later. Her husband, Praveen Halappanavar (34), an engineer at Boston Scientific in Galway, says she asked several times over a three-day period that the pregnancy be terminated.

## Health Care is iTunes

On Build and Analyze this week Marco Arment talked about the U.S. healthcare system, the gradual expansion of forms of state-sponsored coverage, and his general support for Obamacare. Not a topic you might expect to hear covered on a show that is ostensibly about software development and rather involved ways to produce a cup of coffee. But Marco runs his own business and thus needs to face the question of buying health insurance for himself and his family, together with the expense of offering benefits to any employees he might consider taking on.

## Oh Not Again

We all have our vices, I suppose. Dan Drezner has a weakness for empty arguments of the form “Why are liberals less x than conservatives?” where x is any virtue you choose. “Fun,” for instance, or “incisive” or “tall” or, in the present instance, “cosmopolitan.” As vices go, it’s a small one. I mean, it’s not as if Dan is giving lectures about the need to curb our appetites, pocketing his \$50,000 speaker fee, and then sneaking off to Atlantic City.

## Take a Chance on Me

I’ve been wanting to write something about the William Bennett, Slot King story, but there are too many angles. Reaction runs the gamut. Some see it as a “pathetic hit job” on “one of America’s most influential moral conservatives”, while others just can’t resist the schadenfreude that comes from seeing a sanctimonious old bluenose turn out to have a vice of his own. I’m on the side of schadenfreude, myself. Public shame, as I’m sure Bill must have pointed out in a book somewhere already, can provide a strong impulse to live a more virtuous life.

## Bush's Foreign Policy Attacked

By the man who knows him best.

## Santorum

It’s been interesting to watch the fallout from Senator Rick Santorum’s priceless interview about homosexuality, the “right-to-privacy lifestyle” and, um, sex with dogs. Kevin Drum and Matt Yglesias pick up on some of the important bits. The Volokhs have made some interesting contributions. Head conspirator Eugene Volokh went to some lengths to dismiss the outrage over Santorum’s comments as ‘a faux scandal’. In the course of his argument he made it clear that, on his view, even something like incest should not be illegal if both parties consent.

## Newt and Such

Kevin Drum succinctly describes the arc of Newt Gingrich’s career. Very oddly, I can remember the first time I read his name, because I didn’t understand that it was a name. It was during the summer holidays in 1986 and I had just bought a copy of Check your Egos at the Door, a Doonesbury book made up mainly of strips from 1984 and ‘85. I didn’t understand a lot of the references.

## Freedom Markets

Matthew Yglesias notices a FOX news item on the poor domestic economy titled “The Price of Freedom”. He asks: Does Fox honestly want us to believe that the economy’s poor performance under the Bush administration is some kind of price that we must pay in order to remain free? Well, yes. I’d say that’s exactly what they want their viewers to think—the price we must pay for the Iraqis to remain free, anyway.

## Voting Systems

You don’t have to be a psephologist to share Matt Yglesias’s dislike of first past the post voting systems. The sole virtue of such systems is that they are easy to understand: the person who gets the most votes in a straight count wins the election. Most everything else about them is problematic. In particular, a small edge in the percentage of votes cast usually translates into a huge advantage in terms of seats in parliament or congress.

## Ignatz throws a Brick

It’s a target worth hitting, too. Sam Heldman knows his stuff. Go read it.

## History Lesson

While you’re waiting for him to finish his monster post on political theory and political philosophy (see my short version—two extra disciplines provided for free!) you can see Jacob Levy deliver a much-needed smacking around to an article by an NRO-nothing. Very satisfying.

## Lott Again

It seems that John Lott may be quoting himself at one remove in his new book. The natural next step is for Lott to falsely quote himself, and after that to lose the source of the false quotation, but use it anyway. (If you don’t know what all this is about, read this.)

## Pulitzers

Jacob Levy points out that the NYT only one a single Pulitzer price this year. But he also sensibly notes that this isn’t such a big deal: there were no NYT winners in 2000, for example. Empirical Task: Visit bloggers who (unlike Jacob) suffer from acute Timesophobia and see whether any of them suggest the dearth of Pulitzers is a judgment on the malign influence of Howell Raines. Thought Experiment: Assume the Times had won many Pulitzers, and ask whether Timesophobes would view this as a further indictment of a corrupt, backscratching liberal media establishment.

## Insta-Reversal

I’m sorry, but this post from Glenn Reynolds just made me laugh out loud. All the strengths and weaknesses of the InstaMindset are captured in the space of the first three sentences. He has to shift from fourth to reverse so fast the engine practically jumps out on the road in front of him.

## What a Shower of ...

I you’ve ever wondered what sort of story would appall both The Eugene Volokh and Atrios then here’s your answer. And they’re right to be appalled, too. Freedom for all, but with an astringent sidedish of evangelical blackmail.

## Remind Me

What’s so great about living in Arizona? Oh yeah, I remember now. Heh.

## Clean Hands, Dirty Hands

David Adesnik of OxBlog has responded to my criticism of OxDem and my view of the likely post-war experience in Iraq. Thanks to David for taking the time. Here is some reaction from me. David’s post makes a couple of things clearer to me but still, I think, leaves a lot open for argument. He says According to the first sentence in our statement of principles, “The Forum’s mission is to promote democracy worldwide.

## A = Argh!

Go read Jim Henley’s response to this inane argument from Onkar Ghate. Ghate, an Objectivist writing for the Ayn Rand Institute, thinks “mass civilian casualties in terrorist countries” [sic!] are the fault of said innocent civilians. If nothing else, it’s worth seeing how a devoted follower of Ayn Rand manages not only to justify the state-sponsored killing of civilians, but to actually blame the civilians for this. Ayn, you’ve come a long way, baby.

## Aaron Brown Transcript Fun, II

Following up on the one from the other day, here’s another great transcript of Aaron Brown interviewing someone, trying to push his own view via his questions, and then discovering he is losing the argument in a really embarrassing way. Hint to Aaron: if you want to strongarm interviewees, you need to have a strong arm.

## The Persistence of the Old Regime

Robert Fisk, comparing Saddam Hussein to Joseph Stalin, was dismissed with contempt by David Adesnik, who said “Just when you thought he couldn’t be any stupider, he outdoes himself again.” Kevin Drum has already made a relevant comment here. But it turns out that Fisk is not the first to draw the comparison. In a separate discussion, Daniel Drezner notes in passing that “the Baath Party has ruled Iraq for about thirty-five years.

## A Short Telegram

George Kennan has a brief letter”) in the Washington Post today: I am extremely concerned about the shameful, almost total passivity of Congress during the period of preparations for our military attack on Iraq. (I recognize as exceptions Sen. Robert C. Byrd’s noble statement in the Senate [In Brief, March 20] and the belated but vigorous statements of Sen. Thomas A. Daschle [news story, March 18].) Congress’s inaction is a dangerous precedent in executive-legislative relations.

## Food for Cynics

A subsidiary of Halliburton has won one of the first contracts to be awarded by the Government for rebuilding work in Iraq. Update: For dessert, cynics may note that it was a no-bid contract. Update 2: Actually, these appear to be two different contracts, both to Halliburton subsidiaries, one bid and one no-bid.

## Between Facts and Norms

David Adesnik at OxBlog reports that his neighbors across the street have seen the Union Jack displayed in his window and responded with a big “Stop the War” sign. He comments: While bigger is often better, I think the folks in no. 32 have embarrassed themselves and their cause by putting up a sign distributed by the Socialist Workers Party. David thus reveals himself as a bit of a McLuhanite. The medium of the card and its origins trump the message written on it.

## San Francisco Protests

Though Glenn Reynolds has a strong desire to believe the anti-war movement is dying (as evidence he cites the small size of the anti-war protest in that traditional protest-flashpoint of Knoxville today), your typical San Francisco resident is likely to tell you that anti-war sentiment is alive and well and blocking his commute. This morning, Laurie and I took the bus as far downtown as we could, then walked to one of the main protest points at 5th and Market.

## War Begins

I was just reading the first chapter of Albert Hirschman’s Shifting Involvements, which I picked up this morning, when I heard President Bush’s short announcement. As it happens, Hirschman has this to say about war: Modern wars are such overpowering events that they make greater attention to public affairs virtually compulsory, but their outbreak is usually explained by reference to diplomatic rivalry, economic competition, or ideological conflict, rather than to any desire on the part of citizens to be more involved in public affairs.

## Freedom Kissin' in the USA

This is just too funny, except they appear to be serious.

## Strategic Analysis

While you munch on your freedom fries, consider what is going on inside the mind of Steven DenBeste. Here he is wondering about the French: De facto they’re allied with Saddam even if there’s no publicly-declared treaty or agreement; so will they be willing to intervene militarily? Will they smuggle some sort of weaponry in? Or ship it in openly? If 20 cargo jets take off from French territory and head towards the middle east, what will we do?

## More Traitors

Someone should tell William Sjostrom that George H.W. Bush seems to have joined “Saddam’s fifth column.” Update: Kevin Drum adds some context to this story (particularly the information that the Bush Sr speech was given a fortnight ago) which makes it clear that there’s more spin than substance to the Times of London piece.

## Consultant for Evil?

A number of bloggers have commented on the Simpsons’ parody of Fox News this weekend (Your voice for evil). Almost unbelievably, this morning I got an email from Fox News (it was also distributed to many of my colleagues). It read: Hello - The O'Reilly Factor is looking for a sociologist with a conservative view regarding media and sexuality. This would be for a television interview this Friday (3/14). If there is someone within the university who might be available, please contact me at 212.301.[xxxx].

## A Few Quick Ones

Seen while blogging around: Sean-Paul Kelley has a post on the risks and rewards of invading or not invading. It’s a bit hard to parse—sometimes he’s writing about probable risks and payoffs, other times he’s writing about definite costs and benefits. One of his risks of Invading is “Possible US use of nuclear weapons.” Ack. That these are even on the agenda is a sign that the new category of WMDs has successfully permeated public discourse.

## Chaos at Home and Abroad

Go to Digby’s blog for a point-by-point commentary on President Bush’s latest talk with the press. It’s pretty depressing. Meanwhile, though the Oxbloggers prepare for the task of building stable democratic regimes throughout the Middle East, Eugene Volokh digs in against the prospect of civil war and the breakdown of law and order at home. I can’t bring myself to think that the conjuring up the prospect of regional or national anarchy at some point in the next 50 years is a sensible rationale for assessing gun-control policy choices today.

## On Pious Hypocrisy

Patrick Nielsen Hayden and Mark Kleiman are both outraged at the free pass Saudi Arabia is getting from the U.S. government for both religious persecution and human rights abuses more generally. Meanwhile, President Bush tells reporters ‘I’m reading the Bible every day’. Mark nails the issue, noting that “Foreign workers get tossed into stinking prisons for practicing the faith our President so ostentatiously claims to share—I think the technical term for his behavior is ‘praying in the streetcorners, to be seen of men’”.

## The Press Conference

Jesus wept. That was appalling. Glenn Reynolds is making the best of it—”He made some very simple points”, “the questioners, as always, looked smug and irritating and superficial, making Bush look better by contrast”. (Yeah, it’s all about the damn liberal media—they gave him such a hard time.) The crowd at The Corner are spinning as fast as ever they can—‘I think his ‘tiredness’ will read as ‘seriousness,’ i.e., non-cowboyness, to the public’, ‘There’s a method to his somber somnolence.

## Strategy and Realism

The administration’s declared long-term strategy on Iraq is that “A new regime in Iraq would serve as a dramatic and inspiring example of freedom for other nations in the region.” Once Iraq falls, the monarchies and theocratic autocracies surrounding it will topple as well, and a new age of democracy and freedom will be ushered in for the people of the Middle-East. Cue trumpets and Tom Friedmanisms. There is a name for this line of thinking.

## Liberal Hawk Nightmares

projection n. (Psychiatry) A defense mechanism by which your own traits and emotions are attributed to someone else. Exhibit A. Tom Friedman. Friedman asserts that President Bush’s plan for Iraq is “the greatest shake of the dice any president has voluntarily engaged in since Harry Truman dropped the bomb on Japan.” What he calls “Mr Bush’s audacious shake of the dice” appeals to him. This is the idea that an invasion of Iraq, followed by the installation of a democratic regime is a geopolitical game-changer.

## Ain't ism

I’m “ain’t ism”. I ain’t any ism. If there’s any formal political persuasion you can put a name on, it’s virtually certain that I disagree with it in some way, on at least one substantial issue Â– almost always because of practical evaluation of outcomes, given that I’m not particularly impressed by ideology … The whole point of my article was that I don’t think I fit into any boxes—Steven Den Beste The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood.

## Sauce for the Kettle

Or possibly the pot is calling the goose a gander. Or something. Anyway, Tacitus says One of the truly annoying things about so much of the leftist internet commentariat is their assumption that anyone on the right is ipso facto a die hard supporter of the President. This is ridiculous on its face … Obviously there are many different flavors of conservatives … Well obviously there are. Not like so much of the leftist internet commentariat.

## Public Service Announcement

The Dept of Homeland Security would like to take this opportunity to explain the current political situation to you all. Reports about North Korea are disturbing. We don’t want to act as though the sky is falling on our heads… But North Korea’s Nuclear capability is quite frightening. The CIA says their ballistic missiles could hit the west coast. Their leader is a bit loony, too. That might mean no more San Francisco.

## Collective Action

Terry Pratchett, the novelist and acute political sociologist, recently noted (in his book Night Watch) a pattern often displayed by successful revolutionaries. Before the revolution, they are convinced the problem is that the good and pure and true people are living in a corrupt and stupid and worthless society. After the revolution, though, they begin to think that their good and pure and true society is populated by corrupt and stupid and worthless people.

## War Talk

Some good stuff over at The Agonist about the likelihood of messy urban warfare. Sean-Paul Kelly is skeptical of those who take the General Melchett “barren featureless desert” view of combat in Iraq. Read the comments, too.

## In Other News, II

What’s a few miles between friends? asks David Adesnik over at OxBlog, complaining about the discovery that Iraq has missiles with a range of 114 miles, rather than the permitted 90 miles. He might also ask, what’s a few miles between enemies? As we found out yesterday, North Korea has a ballistic missile capable of hitting the West Coast, which means it can travel approximately 5,900 nautical miles by my rough reckoning.

## In other news

The CIA believes North Korea has a ballistic missile capable of hitting the West Coast of the United States. Stay tuned for analysis and comment showing this further proves that Osama Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein are in an unholy alliance together and that an attack on Iraq is therefore fully justifed as a top priority. I’m hoping Tucson is still just out of range.

## Francophobia

Chris Bertram provides some useful context on French foreign policy by recalling their (and the American’s) behavior during the Falklands War. It’s a good antidote to the “cheese-eating surrender monkey” thing. My own rather less geopolitical view on this is—- where do Americans, of all people, get off with calling another country “cheese-eating”?

## The Hermeneutics of Terror

So, how to parse this statement, allegedly from Osama Bin Laden? On the one hand, it says “All those who co-operate with the Americans against Iraq are hostile to Islam” and that “The United States is seeking, by occupying Iraw, to achieve the Zionist dream of establishing a Greater Israel.” On the other hand, it dismisses “the ignorant governments that rule all Arab states, including Iraq” because they do not fight “in the name of God.” (CNN is also translating this as “We need your intention to be to fight for the sake of God, not for nationalism or any infidel regime, including Iraq.”) The voice on the tape claims “We stress the importance of martyrdom operations against the enemy, these attacks that have spited Americans and Israelis like never before.” But it dimisses regimes like Saddam’s as “infidels… For the socialists and the rulers have lost their legitimacy a long time ago, and the socialists are infidels regardless of where they are, whether in Baghdad or in Aden.” Reactions have ranged from the skeptical to the impenetrable.

## Democracy in Action

President Bush made a short speech that contained some of his toughest rhetoric on Iraq. “Saddam Hussein will be stopped,” he said at the end. And in words that reporters must now be used to writing, the Times tells us that “The president then left the room, without taking questions.” It’s quite difficult to find a record of all of the times President Bush has gotten up in front of an audience—of reporters or regular people—and taken unscripted questions.

## Question

Does Saddam Hussein think George Bush is deterrable? If he doesn’t, what effect would it have on his preferences? Game theory needs at least two players, after all.
###### Thu, Feb 6, 2003

Josh Chaftez over at OxBlog has a pool going on when the bombing will start in Iraq: Michael says Sunday, Feb. 16. I say Monday, March 3. David? Dan? Winner gets a round on the losers at the first Beer & Bush after the bombing starts. We now know that the real losers in this war will be grad students who fail to accurately predict the date of its outbreak. Those beers can really cut into your stipend check.

## Audammit

Here’s another weird column from Tom Friedman. I think he’s trying to see what happens when you mix wishful thinking and realpolitik in equal measure. What you get, it seems, is an argument held together by repeated use of the words “audacious” or “audacity.” Friedman knows what the long-term goal of the Administration’s foreign policy is, and he also knows that most Americans don’t have any stomach for it: This war has two purposes … The stated purpose is to disarm Iraq.

## Costs and Claims

Recently, Chris Bertram evaluated the case for war and found it wanting. He noted that there were no easy answers, but “The burden of justification, though, lies with those who would make war” and that the case as made was very weak. How weak? Via Drapetomaniac comes a link to a site that brings together inormation about likely costs of a war and the reliability of the claims made in favor of it.

## More on DGUs

Kevin, Ted and the ArchPundit (whom I’ve put on my links list) continue to question the infamous missing Lott survey.

## When I was a Young Man I Carried my Pack

Tim Dunlop has a post about possible Australian military involvement in Iraq. But I think the headling should read “As the ship pulled away from the Quay”.

## Talking points

Brad DeLong gives Eugene Volokh some advice on how not to get quoted saying something awkward or embarrassing in print about, say, your former boss Justice Sandra Day O’Connor. Eugene is quoted as calling her rulings on race-conscious policies “contradictory,” which is not quite what he meant. Brad says the solution is to “Have two different kinds of conversations with reporters. First, have normal conversations on background that they agree not to quote… Second, have abnormal conversations designed to produce quotes in newspaper articles.” The benefits of this strategy are that “You are happier.

## Funny Ha Ha

For someone who runs a weblog magazine for terribly with-it New Yorkers, Nick Denton is just so six months ago with his approving link to a Tucker Carlson piece about why Democrats need to be funnier. Didn’t someone already come up with this lame idea? Honestly, when Knoxville leads Tribeca by the nose, there can be little solace in the usual high points of Manhattanite life, such as wearily spotting Gabriel Byrne at a restaurant, having pizza with pig fat topping, voyeuring Harrison Ford or conversing with a self-absorbed cokehead so appallingly irritating that you want to have her arrested on general principle, never mind about the dope.

## Chancellor Clinton

A second post on the theme “People in Glass Houses Shouldn’t Throw Stones.” Tim Dunlop cites some snotty commentary from the Dean of Oriel College, Oxford, about the possible effects of a Chancellor Bill Clinton on the female student body. (Wink wink. Nudge nudge. Say no more.) And then, quite correctly, he reminds us what the English education system is really famous for.

## Anti-War Protests

Glenn Reynolds (safely at one remove, via a correspondent, for purposes of plausible deniability) gives a patronising account of the impressively large anti-war protests around the country today. (Impressive both for their absolute size and for their size given that there’s not actually a war on yet.) Reporting live from the Department of Inadvertent Self-Revelation, his informant writes: Finally, I was struck by the attitude of the protestors. “Whiny” and “smug” come to mind, as does “entitled.” I know that doesn’t cover the territory, but I’m having a hard time finding the right words to describe it.

## Popper

Matthew Yglesias writes about how everyone loves Orwell because everyone imagines themelves on the side of the angels. He also mentions Karl Popper, who has suffered much the same fate (insert smug exposition of how scientific theories must be falsifiable here). Matt suggests that politics needs more recognition of human fallibility than it does thundering moral clarity, though I’m told that Sir Karl was not fond of practicing what he preached on this score.

## Preemptive Policing

Via TalkLeft again (great site, that), the laugh-or-you’d-cry story of Virginia police who, presumably inspired by their Government’s foreign policy, were preemptively arresting people for being drunk in a bar, on the principle that they might be about to go out and be disorderly, drive home, or gas their own people in an alcohol-fueled rage. (Take your pick.) Former Congreeman Bob Barr said This actually is a frightening scenario that one hopes is nipped in the bud.

## Marketing the Tax Cut

Kevin Drum has some astute observations about the marketing of the Bush Administration’s Economic Plan (read them here), and about the difficulties the opposition is having rebutting them (read them here). The Administration is doing a good job of passing off a large tax break to the very wealthy as something that benefits seniors—- because a lot of rich people are old. How to respond? Kevin’s reaction—- “You mean seniors like Martha Stewart and Ken Lay?“—- is an excellent start.

## Trent Lotte

Via TalkLeft, a little late but I laughed out loud. Coming soon: the Fristaccino.

## Anglosphere III (and final)

Iain Murray got a bit annoyed at my previous post on the Anglosphere question. (Incidentally, I think this is a data point for Daniel Drezner.) I didn’t mean to unfairly needle him, and it looks like we were talking past each other in that last exchange. In any event, we’ve all calmed down a bit (though perhaps not embraced nominalism, as Matt Yglesias advised). As I say in my comments to Iain’s final post on the topic, there’s not much to object to in Jim Bennett’s notes on the concept.

## Anglosphere II

The Edge of England’s Sword swings in my direction: Kieran Healey [sic] laughs at the above post, but not in a nice way. He seems to think that because a nation has some unique characteristics, it cannot be part of a general set of nations. Presumably the same objections mean that Austria cannot be counted part of Catholic Europe. This is a pretty absolutist line to take and I don’t think it’s a reasonable criticism.

## Anglosphere

Chris Bertram gives Iain Murray a bit of a poke: Iain Murray is quite an enthusiast for the concept of the “anglosphere”, the idea that there is a set of institutional and cultural characteristics that set the English-speaking countries of the world apart and which explain their unique good fortune. No doubt there’s something in the idea, although if I were being mischievous – which I am! – I would gesture in the direction of Mr Podsnap from Dickens’s Our Mutual Friend … Of course, Iain isn’t a little Englander like Mr Podsnap, but there is something about the “Anglosphere” which has, if I may put things somewhat paradoxically, a whiff of Little England writ large.

## Political State Report

Kos’s brainchild, the Political State Report is up and running. They have two contributors from Arizona, Dustin Nolte (D) and David Dodenhoff®. Expect plenty of material on the appalling budget crisis that Arizona has dug its way into.

## D-Squared on Race in America

D-Squared has a provocative post about the politics of race in the U.S. (Matthew Yglesias has some thoughts on it, and a post by Kevin Drum is also relevant.) It’s worth reading carefully. It makes three points. The first is the most arresting but also the least substantial. The second is basically right. The third is very interesting. Here they are in order. First, he says In the opinion of D-Squared Digest, the epithet “nigger” is a much less offensive term when used to refer to an American of African descent, than the more popular word “minority”.

## Precautionary Principles and Smallpox

Mark Kleiman responded to my post about smallpox vaccination, where I raised the question of our uncertainty about the probability of a smallpox attack from Iraq. The key point was that it’s really hard to confidently put a probability on that event, and so while we can figure out what we should do if we knew the risk, we don’t know it and so the decision is harder. (I also said that makes the Administration’s position look a little odd.) Mark responded by outlining the concept of a “critical value” for the risk of an attack—- it’s the value that would make the expected costs [of vaccinating vs not vaccinating] equal … If the actual probability [of an attack] is higher than the critical value, vaccination will have the lower expected cost and is therefore the preferred option; else, not… So now, instead of moping around, saying “What do you think the probability of a smallpox attack is?” “I dunno, Marny, what do you think the probability of a smallpox attack is?” we have something to concentrate on: is the probability as high as 1%, or not?

## Smallpox Uncertainties

Mark Kleiman has been following the smallpox vaccination story pretty closely, and argues that the administration has wimped out by not getting everybody vaccinated. He points to a recent RAND study in the NEJM which calculates the expected number of deaths under several scenarios of vaccination policy and subsequent attack. Mark makes some effective criticisms of the study’s assumptions and then comments: The estimated death toll from mass national vaccination is about 500: about 3 per million vaccinated.

## Open Wide

Hit and Run, the new blog by the people at Reason magazine, comment on George Packer’s skewering of Dinesh D’Souza’s Letters to a Young Conservative: Packer’s critique is mostly successful, though some of his arguments would be more credible coming from a conservative than from a liberal. I think this means “It would make me feel better if Packer’s criticisms had come from someone on my side of the ideological fence because, you know, he’s basically right.” Just close your eyes and swallow the cod liver oil, guys.

## Cuts both ways

Instapundit cites Will Warren “fact-checking Trent Lott” on legacy admissions at elite schools (emphasis added below): The Lott quote: “Again, you can get into arguments about timetables and quotas. Here’s what I think, though: I think you’ve got to have an aggressive effort in America to make everybody have a chance. Harvard has a program where one in three of their students are alumni children. That, you know, we need to balance this out more, and I think that we should encourage minorities to have an opportunity across the board.” … Problem: not true.

## The Right Remark

I did a lot of debating as an undergrad. (Though I don’t talk about it now that I live in the U.S., because American college debating has, um, a slightly different vibe from the kind found in Ireland, the UK and Australia.) A lesson from all that public arguing is that, sometimes, the best way to cut the knees out from under your opponent is to say almost, but not quite, exactly what he said himself.

## Sign Me Up

To paraphrase Nathan Glazer, I guess we are all cultural marxists now. (See Atrios for some context.)

## Lynching

Ignatz couldn’t believe that he heard Pat Buchanan really say that Trent Lott was getting lynched. But Atrios has the quote, and a reminder of what a lynching really looks like. I read somewhere yesterday that phase 3 of the spin cycle on Lott’s remarks would be to argue that the Liberals were the real bigots. And here you have it—- just appalling.
###### Thu, Dec 12, 2002

Glenn Reynolds says THE SADDAM / AL QAEDA LINK: Why are so many anxious to deny it? Perhaps because having missed it for so long would be embarrassing: Someone teaching a rhetoric class could probably mine Instapundit for examples of logical fallacies. He seems especially prone to begging the question, ambiguity and (as in this case) attacking the motive. Incidentally, the reason (rather than the motive) for denying a Saddam/Al Qaeda link till now was lack of evidence.

## DiIulio Opens Lid, Gets Himself Canned

The Daily Kos has a summary of the John DiIulio story. It’s fascinating. Go read it.

## Yerp

Matthew Yglesias is right to point out that the American media “when presenting “European” opinion, [has] a tendency to ignore the fact that there are a whole bunch of different countries in Europe.” This happens all the time. Conservatives love to bash Europe as decadent, weak and helpless without U.S. protection. Liberals sigh and pine for “socialized medicine” and other bits of the welfare state. My favorite example of this comes from the blurb on the back of packets of Pepperidge Farm Milano Cookies, which begins “Imagine strolling down the cobbled streets to your favorite European bake shop…” Indeed.

## Never Mind the Volokhs

Eugene Volokh criticizes the history professor who insulted a cadet by quoting some Kipling: Probably old hat to most of you, but some at least have forgotten it: Yes, makin’ mock o’ uniforms that guard you while you sleep Is cheaper than them uniforms, an’ they’re starvation cheap. The last clause is thankfully no longer quite true, but the rest is still right. All very well, except that yesterday he was agreeing with Christopher Hitchens that it’s wrong to criticize “armchair generals” who advocate military action, but haven’t served themselves.

## The Chickenhawk That Didn't Bark

Matthew Yglesias (for the second time) does sterling service in reminding the world that people like Christopher Hitchens are busily attacking a version of the Chickenhawk argument that is being aggressively propagated by, um, nobody. Eugene Volokh endorses Hitchens, so it’s probably only a matter of time before it moves along the blogger food chain (up? down?) to Instapundit and becomes established as a Conservative Talking Point: “Anti-war bloggers challenge principle of civil authority over the military!

## Political Philosophy

Matthew Yglesias gives a reading list in political philosophy, inspired by a longer one from Josh Chafetz. The lists are pretty good, though both commentators have their eccentricities. Matthew says “First read Hobbes’ Leviathan then check out the literature on evolutionary psychology.” Josh claims Joseph Schumpeter’s Capitalism, Socialism, Democracy is “an early work in rational choice theory.” Here we have two good examples of ayering. (According to the highly reliable Philosophical Lexicon, to ayer is “To oversimplify elegantly in the direction of a past generation.” Viz, “Russell, in the Analysis of Mind, ayers a behaviorist account of belief.”) To ayer is human, of course, but we should strive against it all the same.

## Strawman Chickenhawk

Instapundit in his wisdom links approvingly to a piece by Michael Kelly that effectively dismantles a form of the “chickenhawk” argument that, alas, no-one is making. Matthew Yglesias presents the chickenhawk argument in its correct and, at present, wholly unrefuted form.

## Stand Down vs Gear Up

Stand Down is an important new blog from Max Sawicky and Julian Sanchez, bringing together writers from the left and right who think that under the present circumstances, invading Iraq is a bad idea. Read their mission statement here. Here’s an example of why I think this blog is a good idea. The Lincoln Plawg recently took a few well-aimed swipes at an article by John Lewis Gaddis in Foreign Policy called “A Grand Strategy”, where Gaddis gets excited about the new National Security Strategy document.

## Playing with the Wrong Team

Very interesting article on Slate about recent moves by Donald Rumsfeld to rejig who’s analyzing intelligence data—- and historical evidence that this is a bad idea.

## Two Posters

One of these posters is a real advertisment produced by a state agency. One is not. But which one? (Thanks to Samizdata.net and Freepie for links to the posters. See more of the non-real kind here.)

## The Blame of those ye Better

There’s a fascinating foreign policy rhetoric that I’ve seen with increasing frequency recently. It’s used to justify the scope of U.S. intervention by conservatives who ought otherwise be opposed to that sort of global policeman role. The tone is Cecil Rhodes meets Your Angry Mother: “Don’t make me come over there—- All right, I warned you…” For instance, Instapundit points to an article titled Confessions Of An Isolationist Wannabe, where John Hawkins wonders how the U.S.

## I Like Your Manifesto, Put it to the Testo

Matthew Yglesias serendipitously points towards another manifesto. Compare and contrast with the one I was talking about this morning. Your answer should discuss the literary style, analytical power, political substance and likely staying power of each piece. Turn it in before 5:00pm on Friday. Late papers will not be accepted. Extra credit if you can identify the source of the song lyric that’s the title of this post.

## War Games

Two interesting posts, one from William Burton and one from the Daily Kos about the lack of communication between civilian war hawks (with no military experience) and military and intelligence experts who know how to plan a combat operation. Burton digs up a fascinating old item from Suck about Norman Schwartzkopf’s autobiography. I remember “Stormin’ Norman” had a public image as a just-do-it kind of guy. Turns out that was mostly PR, and he was very careful about what he was doing with his forces.

## More on the North

It’s hard not to have a little bit of sympathy for Mark Kleiman’s proposed solution to the Northern Ireland problem. But Gerry Adams and Ian Paisely would probably find plenty of common ground in their locked room when it came to their long-term shared enemies, the British and Irish governments. Meanwhile, events continue to unfold, as they say. The DUP (Paisley’s party) will resign their ministerial posts on riday. First minister David Trimble wants Sinn Fein out of the executive.

## Dept of Soup and Forks

Pay a visit to Slugger O’Toole for the latest on the current political crisis in Northern Ireland. Short version: Details are still emerging, but it looks as though the IRA successfully infiltrated the Stormont administration (the Northern Ireland parliament) and, over a period of months, collected secret information about senior political, police and military figures. It looks as though they did this with the knowledge and help of Sinn Fein party members who work at Stormont as part of the Northern Ireland Assembly.

## Pining for Jersey

Mark Kleiman summarizes the latest twist in the New Jersey Senate race better than I could. Josh Marshall also has a good comment on this. Prediction: Coverage of Forrester’s embarrassing memo by the right-wing bloggers will be eschewed in favor of more hype about Iraq and unfounded speculation about the terrorist underpinnings of the Montgomery County shootings. And anyone who says that’s just a distraction will be haughtily dismissed as a cynic.

## News from the Domestic Front

As always, the Daily Kos has up to date information on Senate and gubernatorial races around the country. Recent gems include a summary of Jeb Bush’s latest bit of self-revelation, a post about a new DNC-sponsored cartoon about privatizing social security (and there I was thinking liberals are supposed to be no fun), and of course all the latest from As Jersey Turns.

## Tweaking William Morris

Chris Bertram gives us a very nice quote from William Morris on the characteristics of true socialism, and the dangers of complacency about it. I wondered what would happen if one were to replace “Socialism” with “Capitalism” and tweak the quotation appropriately. How would it sound? Here’s the result: this book, having produced a great impression on people who are really enquiring into Capitalism, will be sure to be quoted as an authority for what Capitalists believe, and that, therefore, it is necessary to point out that there are some Capitalists who do not think that the problem of the organisation of life and necessary labour can be dealt with by a huge individual decentralisation, working by a kind of magic for which no one feels himself responsible; that on the contrary it will be necessary for the unit of allocation to be small enough for every citizen to feel himself responsible for its details, and be interested in them; that individual men cannot shuffle off the business of life on to the shoulders of an abstraction called the Market, but must deal with it in conscious association with each other.

## Ideology and Policy in One Easy Lesson

The 2×2 table is the argumentative tool of choice for political scientists rather than sociologists, but I couldn’t resist this one. My colleague Al Bergesen pitched it to me yesterday (though he may have gotten it from somewhere else). Political ideology classified by outlook on life and policy domain. Domestic Foreign Romantic Right Left Realist Left Right Let’s confine ourselves to the U.S. case. We have two outlooks on life, Romantic and Realist, and we have two policy arenas, Domestic and Foreign.

## The Language of Influence

The National Republican Congressional Committee has been trying to rewrite a little history. Once they found out the phrase “social security privatization” was not playing well with voters, they decided it was not their own policy label after all, but rather a piece of inaccurate Democrat spin. Joshua Marshall has the relevant background. If you needed an excuse to reread “Politics and the English Language”, here it is. As Orwell says in that essay: In our time, political speech and writing are largely the defense of the indefensible.

## FISA and John Ashcroft

Here’s an absolutely fascinating piece by Dahlia Lithwick on Attorney General John Ashcroft’s efforts to become the J. Edgar Hoover of our time, and the difficulties that even rubber-stamp secret surveillance courts are having with this. The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) of 1978 allows the executive branch to ignore constitutional protections against warrantless searches for national security reasons. Requests to wiretap someone in such cases are rubber-stamped by a secret court.

## Comparison Cases for Iraq, the U.S. and Terrorism

It’s the first week of the semester, so things are probably going to be a little too hectic for extended weblog entries. But here are three comparative questions I’d pursue if I had more time. First, what cases can we look to if we want to ask should the U.S invade Iraq? In the last few days, the Bush administration, via Dick Cheney, has ratcheted up their rhetoric on this question, and claimed that containment was no longer an option.

## Just Plain Folks at Waco

Via Brad DeLong, a story about the regular everyday folks invited to the President Bush’s economic summit in Waco. In response to criticism that the hand-picked attendees were unrepresentative, Treasury secretary Paul O’Neill cited attendee Marilyn Carlson, ‘who owns a travel business. She should be able to give us perspective about what it means to be on the front lines.’ Well, Marilyn Carlson’s ‘travel business’ is the Carlson Companies, the privately-held conglomerate that owns the Radisson hotel chain, TGI Friday’s, and a dozen other entities.

## IRA apology to 'noncombatants'

The IRA issued a statement today apologizing to civilian victims of those killed on Bloody Friday, one of the earliest, and worst, atrocities of the Northern Ireland conflict. It happened on July 21st 1972. Ten days later, the IRA bombed Claudy, a quiet border town. The poet James Simmons wrote the “Ballad of Claudy” about that event. It is one of the best pieces of literature to come out of the Troubles.

## Bet They Don't Have a Word for 'Gaffe,' either

From a story in the Washington Post (seen on Brad DeLong’s weblog): ‘According to Timesman Jack Malvern, liberal politician Shirley Williams—also known as the Baroness Williams of Crosby—recently recounted to an audience in Brighton that “my good friend Tony Blair” told her the following anecdote: “Blair, Bush and [French President] Jacques Chirac were discussing economics and, in particular, the decline of the French economy. ‘The problem with the French,’ Bush